The use of two U.S. P-8 Poseidon during the BALTOPS-22 exercise

A revised section 3 of my first Substack article. Part III

Left: A U.S. P-8 Poseidon (N/A) returns to Keflavik on 7 June after having patrolled the Baltic Sea and been refueled at Ronneby (similar to what it did the whole week). One can also see a Poseidon (N/A also in red) from Sigonella coming up to Nordholz Naval Air Base in northern Germany. Right: 15 minutes later, one can see how the Poseidon from Sigonella is landing at Nordholz, while a German P-3 Orion, also based at Nordholz, is flying close to Ronneby.

In 2022, U.S. Naval Air Station Sigonella brought up a P-8 Poseidon to the Baltic Sea on two occasions: during the BALTOPS exercise in June 2022 and just before the explosions in late September 2022. In both cases, this Poseidon operated from the Nordholz Naval Air Base in Germany. For BALTOPS-22, the airplane left Sigonella for Nordholz on 7 June. It returned on 17 June at the end of the exercise. This Poseidon operated over the Baltic Sea, east of Bornholm, between 8-15 June (On 8 June, it just went to Ronneby and back). In September, a U.S. Poseidon from Sigonella patrolled the Baltic Sea back and forth over Bornholm Island for three nights, 22-25 September, until the very night of the explosion on 26 September. The U.S. could easily have dropped a sonar buoy from the Poseidon to send a coded signal to the timers of the explosives. They would then have used a Poseidon to trigger the explosions, as Hersh claimed.

During the BALTOPS-22, this Poseidon aircraft from Sigonella operated over the Baltic Sea in tandem with a Poseidon aircraft from Keflavik, which went down to the Baltic Sea, east of Bornholm, almost every day 7-16 June, on a few occasions in July and August and on the very night of the explosions on 26 September. During BALTOPS-22, it usually went straight from Keflavik to Bornholm over southern Norway and Sweden. It was regularly refueled at the Swedish airbase Ronneby, which made the Poseidon able to stay in the area for a longer period of time. On almost every day, it patrolled the area of the Nord Stream pipelines, particularly the areas of the upcoming explosions. However, when it came closer to these areas, it usually turned off its transponder.

The Poseidon from Sigonella leaves Nordholz (close to Cuxhaven northern Germany) on 10 June and arrives at a position northeast of Bornholm at 11.50, while the Poseidon from Keflavik can be seen further towards northeast after just having past over southern Norway and Sweden.

When a Poseidon left Keflavik for Bornholm shortly before the explosion on 26 September, it passed south of Norway and south of Sweden, and it was refueled by a U.S. tanker aircraft over Poland, not at Ronneby. The U.S. had then clearly decided not to involve Norway and Sweden, and no Norwegian Poseidon was used, as was the original plan, according to Seymour Hersh. The U.S. Poseidon on 26 September avoided Norwegian and Swedish territory. It went south of these countries. The Poseidon, instead of being refueled at Ronneby, it was refueled over Poland, and this U.S. decision was taken already before the first explosion of the Nord Stream pipeline (see separate articles “The U.S. Poseidon attack on Nord Stream”, 9 September 2023). To use a Norwegian Poseidon had supposedly been the plan from the beginning, but something happened. Two new Norwegian Poseidon did not make their first training tour until June. They made some trips in July, August and September mostly around their airbase Evenes, and they made a couple of trips to mid- and south Norway. According to Norwegian authorities, they had some technical problems. Norway seems to have backed out from triggering the explosives sometime during the summer (see separate Poseidon article).

Two Norwegian Poseidon aircraft on training tours in July 2022 leaving from and returning to the Norwegian Poseidon base at Evenes (EVE) close to Harstad. At the time, the Norwegian Poseidon aircraft just went on short trips. The first training trips were made in June.

But let us look at the Poseidon aircraft coming in from Keflavik every day (except for 13 June) during the BALTOPS exercise. It passed the Faroe Islands and the Shetland Islands and went down over southern Norway and Sweden to the southern Baltic Sea, to the waters south of Ronneby and the Swedish naval base Karlskrona and northeast of the Danish Island of Bornholm. It was circling over the area of the Nord Stream pipelines for several hours. For perhaps 50 % of the time, its transponder was turned off and it was flying at low altitude. On 13 June, when the Poseidon from Keflavik did not enter the Baltic, the Poseidon from Nordholz replaced it, and circled in a similar way northeast of Bornholm as the other Poseidon had done most of the week. After patrolling the area east of Bornholm, the Poseidon from Keflavik landed at Ronneby to be refueled and perhaps to brief the U.S. staff. After that, it returned to Keflavik.

The U.S. Poseidon going down to the Baltic Sea from Keflavik (Iceland) over southern Norway and Sweden to the area northeast of Bornholm on 12 June. The aircraft is circling northeast of Bornholm for more than four hours. When approaching the area of the upcoming explosions, it turns off its transponder. After that, it is refueled at Ronneby before it returns to Keflavik.

The same aircraft five hours later, while it returns from Ronneby to Keflavik over southern Sweden and Norway. During the BALTOPS exercise, the Poseidon from Keflavik regularly went over the southern tip of Norway and Sweden different from what it did on the later occasion.

The Poseidon aircraft is coming in from Keflavik to the Baltic Sea on 8, 9, 12 and 14 June. It is going down circling over the area of the pipelines east and northeast of Bornholm each time for around four hours, but it is visible less than half the time, because the transponder is turned off when the aircraft gets closer to the area of the upcoming explosions. After that, the aircraft will land at Ronneby to be refueled before returning to Keflavik. Also, on 10 June and 16 June, it did almost the same, and on 13 June, the other Poseidon replaced it and operated in a similar way northeast of Bornholm.

At this moment, we can only speculate what the above Poseidon was doing northeast of Bornholm for several hours each day for a week. In general, we may argue that it is about intelligence. For example, it would have used its sonar buoys to pick up sounds to pinpoint the position of the Russian Kilo class submarine Dmitrov (Project 877), which is now the only Russian sub in the Baltic Sea. But in that case, it doesn’t make sense to just circle around in a small area. One should cover larger territories, similar to what this Poseidon did on 11 and 15 June (see below). One can also imagine the Poseidon followed the activity of all Russian surface vessels, but the flight pattern – circling around in a small area – rather indicates a search operation. However, to cover the same area for a week point to something stationary like the pipelines. A special version of the Poseidon, P-8I, has a Magnetic Anomaly Detector (MAD) to detect steel-hulled submarines down to a depth of a hundred meters or more, but also pipelines. This would presuppose that the aircraft operated at low altitude, which it did when it turned off its transponder in the area of the upcoming explosions between the visible flight pattern and the Bornholm Island. The Americans, of course, had the drawings and the maps of the exact position of the Nord Stream pipelines, but the U.S. usually wants to have such information confirmed with their own means. We do not have any explanation yet. The U.S. could possibly also have used the P-8 Poseidon to be in contact with divers underwater, but this does not explain why it operated like this for a week. There must have been a specific explanation for this flight pattern of the Poseidon going down from Iceland to the Baltic Sea every day.

Poseidon from Keflavik is returning after a tour over the Baltic Sea on 11 June. Different from the other days, it was refueled over the North Sea and went south of Norway and Sweden. It made a short tour in over Poland exactly as it did when it was refueled over Poland on 26 September, and it also went up along the coast Lithuania and Latvia but primarily outside Russian main naval base of Baltiysk before returning to Keflavik. This flight pattern appears as 
preparation for the tour on 26 September.

What we know is that the Poseidon went down to the Baltic Sea to cover certain sea areas east and northeast of Bornholm each day, and when it approached the areas of the upcoming explosions, it usually turned off its transponder. We can only see it for a very short time when it operates a low altitude close to these positions, but it at least causes suspicion. In general, it seems very likely that the operations of the two Poseidon aircraft during the BALTOPS-22 exercise had something to do with the upcoming explosions of the Nord Stream pipelines. The activity appears, both for the Poseidon from Keflavik and for the one from Sigonella as preparations for the operation in September that would change not just European energy dependency but also global geopolitics for many years. This was a major operation that the U.S. had prepared for at least since 2014 (see main article 21 March 2023) and during the BALTOPS exercise the preparations were seemingly intensive.

The Poseidon from Sigonella is leaving Nordholz on 17 June and arrives in Sigonella at 14.30.